{"id":15299,"date":"2020-07-03T14:01:23","date_gmt":"2020-07-03T13:01:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/en\/?p=15299"},"modified":"2020-07-03T14:06:51","modified_gmt":"2020-07-03T13:06:51","slug":"vyvoj-cien-nehnutelnosti-za-1q-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/sk\/novinky-sk\/vyvoj-cien-nehnutelnosti-za-1q-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u00fdvoj cien nehnute\u013enost\u00ed za 1q 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 style=\"text-align: left;\">V\u00fdvoj cien nehnute\u013enost\u00ed za 1q 2020<\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Ak ste investovali do real\u00edt, alebo o\u00a0invest\u00edcii uva\u017eujete, jedn\u00fdm zo z\u00e1kladov \u00faspechu je pozna\u0165 ekonomick\u00e9 prostredie, ktor\u00e9 m\u00e1, resp. bude ma\u0165, na Va\u0161u invest\u00edciu priamy vplyv. Tento \u010dl\u00e1nok prin\u00e1\u0161a \u00fadaje o\u00a0v\u00fdvoji na trhu nehnute\u013enost\u00ed za prv\u00fd kvart\u00e1l 2020 ako zachyt\u00e1vaj\u00fa \u0161tatistiky\u00a0N\u00e1rodnej banky Slovenska, s vyu\u017eit\u00edm zdrojov N\u00e1rodnej asoci\u00e1cie realitn\u00fdch kancel\u00e1ri\u00ed Slovenska a port\u00e1lu Nehnute\u013enosti.sk, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa doplnen\u00e9 o vlastn\u00e9 koment\u00e1re.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">V\u00fdvoj cien bytov a\u00a0domov<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Ceny nehnute\u013enost\u00ed na b\u00fdvanie pokra\u010dovali v\u00a0dynamickom raste. Celkov\u00fd rast cien oproti posledn\u00e9mu kvart\u00e1lu roka 2019 je pod\u013ea \u00fadajov NBS na \u00farovni 4,6%, \u010do je najvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed rast od roku 2008. Medziro\u010dn\u00fd rast cien je na \u00farovni 8,6% a\u00a0oproti predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facemu obdobiu mierne zr\u00fdchlil (predt\u00fdm 6,4%). Priemern\u00e1 cena b\u00fdvania bola v\u00a01. \u0161tvr\u0165roku 2020 na \u00farovni 1671 EUR\/m<sup>2<\/sup>, \u010do je oproti 4. \u0161tvr\u0165roku 2020 rast o\u00a074 EUR\/m<sup>2<\/sup>. V\u00a0medziro\u010dnom porovnan\u00ed bol n\u00e1rast ceny o\u00a0132 EUR\/m<sup>2<\/sup>. K\u00a0rastu cien prispeli viac byty, ne\u017e domy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Cena bytov vzr\u00e1stla o\u00a087 EUR\/m<sup>2<\/sup> na 2006 EUR\/m<sup>2<\/sup> (kvart\u00e1lny rast o\u00a04,5%, medziro\u010dne o\u00a09,7%). R\u00e1stli prakticky ceny v\u0161etk\u00fdch typov bytov, s\u00a0v\u00fdnimkou 5 a\u00a0viac izbov\u00fdch (kvart\u00e1lny rast 0,5 %). Vzh\u013eadom na \u0161pecifick\u00fa povahu ve\u013ek\u00fdch bytov a\u00a0relat\u00edvne n\u00edzky dopyt po nich v\u00a0porovnan\u00ed s\u00a0men\u0161\u00edmi jednotkami, v\u0161ak tento v\u00fdvoj nie je prekvapen\u00edm.\u00a0Rast ceny domov bol na \u00farovni 32 EUR\/m<sup>2 <\/sup>na 1264 EUR\/m<sup>2<\/sup> (medzikvart\u00e1lny rast o\u00a02,6%, medziro\u010dne 6,3%). Rodinn\u00e9 vily (domy nad 150 m<sup>2<\/sup>) prispeli r\u00fdchlej\u0161\u00edm rastom (kvart\u00e1lne o\u00a07,1%) oproti \u0161tandardn\u00fdm domom (3,2%).<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_15301\" style=\"width: 446px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-1.png\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15301\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-15301 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-1.png\" alt=\"Post 1 Graf 1\" width=\"436\" height=\"322\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-1.png 436w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-1-300x222.png 300w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-1-14x11.png 14w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 436px) 100vw, 436px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-15301\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graf 1: V\u00fdvoj cien b\u00fdvania v kvart\u00e1lnom porovnan\u00ed. Zdroj: NARKS a NBS<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_15302\" style=\"width: 448px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-2.png\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15302\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-15302 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-2.png\" alt=\"Post 1 Graf 2\" width=\"438\" height=\"324\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-2.png 438w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-2-300x222.png 300w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-2-14x11.png 14w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 438px) 100vw, 438px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-15302\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graf 2: V\u00fdvoj cien bytov a domov Zdroj: NARKS a NBS<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_15303\" style=\"width: 454px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-3.png\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15303\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-15303 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-3.png\" alt=\"Post 1 Graf 3\" width=\"444\" height=\"328\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-3.png 444w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-3-300x222.png 300w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-3-14x11.png 14w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 444px) 100vw, 444px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-15303\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graf 3: V\u00fdvoj priemernej ceny bytov pod\u013ea typu Zdroj: NARKS a NBS<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Z\u00a0geografick\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska bol v\u00fdvoj cien nerovnomern\u00fd. Pre\u0161ovsk\u00fd kraj ako jedin\u00fd zaznamenal medzikvart\u00e1lny pokles cien (-3,3%), Naopak najvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed rast zaznamenal Banskobystrick\u00fd kraj (12,1%), po \u0148om \u017dilinsk\u00fd kraj (7,1%). V\u00a0Ko\u0161ickom kraji bolo mo\u017en\u00e9 po dlh\u0161om \u010dase pozorova\u0165 v\u00fdraznej\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1rast (5,1%). V\u00a0medziro\u010dnom porovnan\u00ed r\u00e1stli ceny co v\u0161etk\u00fdch krajoch. Najv\u00fdraznej\u0161ie v\u00a0\u017dilinskom (16,5%), Tren\u010dianskom (14,5%) a\u00a0v\u00a0Banskobystrickom (14,2%).<\/p>\n<p>Jasne najvy\u0161\u0161iu cenu za m<sup>2<\/sup> m\u00e1 Bratislavsk\u00fd kraj s\u00a0cenou 2231 EUR\/m<sup>2<\/sup> (n\u00e1rast oproti 4q 2019 o\u00a04,6%). Naopak najni\u017e\u0161ie priemern\u00e9 ceny nehnute\u013enost\u00ed s\u00fa v\u00a0Banskobystrickom a\u00a0Nitrianskom kraji (923 EUR\/m<sup>2<\/sup>, resp. 900 EUR\/m<sup>2<\/sup>). Na tomto mieste v\u0161ak treba doda\u0165, \u017ee cena nehnute\u013enost\u00ed v\u00a0Bratislavskom kraji je oproti ostatn\u00fdm krajom silne zv\u00fdhodnen\u00e1 t\u00fdm, \u017ee tento kraj tvor\u00ed prakticky aglomer\u00e1cia hlavn\u00e9ho mesta. Ostatn\u00e9 kraje maj\u00fa v\u00fdrazne v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed podiel men\u0161\u00edch a\u00a0mal\u00fdch s\u00eddel, \u010dastokr\u00e1t pomerne vzdialen\u00fdch od administrat\u00edvnych a\u00a0ekonomick\u00fdch centier, kde s\u00fa ceny nehnute\u013enost\u00ed z\u00e1konite ni\u017e\u0161ie. V\u00a0pr\u00edpade Banskobystrick\u00e9ho a\u00a0Nitrianskeho kraja je situ\u00e1cia umocnen\u00e1 t\u00fdm, \u017ee v\u00a0ich ju\u017en\u00fdch okresoch sa nach\u00e1dzaj\u00fa regi\u00f3ny s\u00a0najni\u017e\u0161ou ekonomickou aktivitou na Slovensku a\u00a0vysokou mierou nezamestnanosti. Aj preto tieto kraje zaost\u00e1vaj\u00fa za ostatn\u00fdmi (s v\u00fdnimkou Bratislavsk\u00e9ho) o\u00a0zhruba 100 EUR\/m<sup>2<\/sup>.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_15304\" style=\"width: 496px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-4.png\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15304\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-15304 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-4.png\" alt=\"Post 1 Graf 4\" width=\"486\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-4.png 486w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-4-300x222.png 300w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-4-14x11.png 14w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-4-98x74.png 98w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 486px) 100vw, 486px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-15304\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graf 4: V\u00fdvoj cien nehnute\u013enost\u00ed v jendnotliv\u00fdch krajoch; Zdroj: NARKS a NBS<\/p><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_15305\" style=\"width: 500px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-5.png\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15305\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-15305 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-5.png\" alt=\"Post 1 Graf 5\" width=\"490\" height=\"362\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-5.png 490w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-5-300x222.png 300w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-5-14x11.png 14w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 490px) 100vw, 490px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-15305\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graf 5: Aktu\u00e1lna mapa s priemern\u00fdmi cenami nehnute\u013enost\u00ed pod\u013ea krajov; Zdroj: NARKS a NBS<\/p><\/div>\n<h2><span lang=\"SK\">Dostupnos\u0165 b\u00fdvania a hodnotenie v\u00fdvoja na realitnom trhu<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>N\u00e1rodn\u00e1 banka \u010falej pou\u017e\u00edva pre svoje anal\u00fdzy ukazovate\u013e dostupnosti b\u00fdvania. Ten m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 kon\u0161truovan\u00fd r\u00f4znymi sp\u00f4sobmi. NBS sa priklonila k\u00a0vyu\u017e\u00edvaniu indexu HAI<a href=\"applewebdata:\/\/7BE7C009-3D39-4D3C-BD5E-4F4F8EDC69FE#_ftn1\" name=\"_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a> (House Affordability Index), ktor\u00fd zoh\u013ead\u0148uje, \u010di m\u00e1 priemern\u00e1 rodina dostato\u010dn\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00e9 prostriedky na to, aby si mohla dovoli\u0165 k\u00fapu priemern\u00e9ho b\u00fdvania na \u201epriemern\u00fa\u201c hypot\u00e9ku. Ak index dosahuje 100%, potom m\u00e1 priemern\u00e1 rodina presne dostato\u010dn\u00fd pr\u00edjem na to, aby si mohla dovoli\u0165 priemern\u00e9 b\u00fdvanie. Ak je to menej ne\u017e 100%, potom m\u00e1 men\u0161\u00ed pr\u00edjem, ako by potrebovala a ak je hodnota vy\u0161\u0161ia ako 100%, potom je pr\u00edjem rodiny viac ako dostato\u010dn\u00fd. V\u00a0z\u00e1sade teda plat\u00ed, \u017ee \u010d\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed index HAI, t\u00fdm lep\u0161ia dostupnos\u0165 b\u00fdvania.<\/p>\n<p>Ak porovn\u00e1me priebe\u017en\u00e9 inverzn\u00e9 hodnoty tohto indexu k\u00a0jeho historick\u00e9mu priemeru z\u00edskame \u00fadaj o\u00a0pribli\u017enom dlhodobom nadhodnoten\u00ed, resp. podhodnoten\u00ed ceny bytov v\u00a0danom regi\u00f3ne. Na nasleduj\u00facich grafoch je mo\u017en\u00e9 vidie\u0165 v\u00fdvoj krivky dostupnosti b\u00fdvania pr\u00e1ve v\u00a0pomere k\u00a0jeho dlhodob\u00e9mu priemeru a\u00a0to celkovo a\u00a0za kateg\u00f3riu bytov. Z\u00a0nich vypl\u00fdva, \u017ee ceny b\u00fdvania boli v\u00a0prvom \u0161tvr\u0165roku z\u00a0dlhodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska mierne nadhodnoten\u00e9 (<em>pozn\u00e1mka: pre grafy 6 a 7 plat\u00ed, \u017ee pokia\u013e sa krivka nach\u00e1dza v kladnej \u010dasti, cena nehnute\u013enosti je z dlhodob\u00e9ho poh\u013eadu podhodnoten\u00e1 oproti priemeru. Pokia\u013e sa nach\u00e1dza v z\u00e1pornej \u010dasti, je cena nehnute\u013enosti dlhodobo nadhodnoten\u00e1 oproti priemeru<\/em>). Tento \u00fadaj je v\u0161ak v\u00a0s\u00falade s\u00a0hodnotou kompozitn\u00e9ho indexu na hodnotenie cien b\u00fdvania, ktor\u00e9mu sa venujeme \u010fal\u0161ej \u010dasti tohto \u010dl\u00e1nku a\u00a0ktor\u00fd poukazuje na rast cien, no zatia\u013e pod hranicou rizikov\u00e9ho p\u00e1sma. Pre \u00faplnos\u0165 dodajme, \u017ee NBS vo svojej metodike pre v\u00fdpo\u010det HAI pou\u017e\u00edva pr\u00edsnej\u0161ie kvalifika\u010dn\u00e9 krit\u00e9ria pre z\u00edskanie hypot\u00e9ky &#8211; 30% LTV (Loan To Value) z vlastn\u00fdch prostriedkov, 20 ro\u010dn\u00e1 splatnos\u0165 &#8211; ako je re\u00e1lne mo\u017en\u00e9 z\u00edska\u0165. Be\u017ene sa pritom poskytuj\u00fa hypot\u00e9ky s nutnos\u0165ou zlo\u017ei\u0165 20% vlastn\u00fdch prostriedkov a\u00a030 ro\u010dn\u00e9 splatnosti. Preto m\u00e1me za to, \u017ee re\u00e1lna dostupnos\u0165 bytov je v\u00a0skuto\u010dnosti o\u00a0\u010dosi vy\u0161\u0161ia, ne\u017e uv\u00e1dza NBS a\u00a0inverzn\u00e9 hodnoty v\u00a0porovnan\u00ed k\u00a0priemeru HAI bud\u00fa vykazova\u0165 ni\u017e\u0161ie dlhodob\u00e9 nadhodnotenie, resp. v\u00a0pr\u00edpade podhodnotenia bude toto v\u00a0skuto\u010dnosti o\u00a0\u010dosi v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_15306\" style=\"width: 558px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-6.png\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15306\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-15306 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-6.png\" alt=\"Post 1 Graf 6\" width=\"548\" height=\"406\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-6.png 548w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-6-300x222.png 300w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-6-14x11.png 14w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-6-98x74.png 98w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 548px) 100vw, 548px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-15306\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graf 6: V\u00fdvoj celkovej dostupnosti b\u00fdvania pod\u013ea krajov; Zdroj: NBS a NARKS<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_15307\" style=\"width: 562px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-7.png\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15307\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-15307 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-7.png\" alt=\"Post 1 Graf 7\" width=\"552\" height=\"408\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-7.png 552w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-7-300x222.png 300w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Post-1-Graf-7-14x11.png 14w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 552px) 100vw, 552px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-15307\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graf 7: V\u00fdvoj dostupnosti b\u00fdvania pod\u013ea krajov \u2013 iba byty; Zdroj: NBS a NARKS<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Tento index je v\u0161ak nutn\u00e9 vn\u00edma\u0165 v\u00a0\u0161ir\u0161\u00edch ekonomick\u00fdch s\u00favislostiach, predov\u0161etk\u00fdm v\u0161ak vo svetle region\u00e1lneho ekonomick\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoja a\u00a0dynamiky v\u00fdvoja dopytu a\u00a0ponuky na trhu nehnute\u013enost\u00ed. Obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 to plat\u00ed v\u00a0pr\u00edpade extern\u00fdch \u0161okov, ak\u00fdm je prebiehaj\u00faca pand\u00e9mia. Preto nie je mo\u017en\u00e9 na z\u00e1klade t\u00fdchto d\u00e1t predpoveda\u0165 v\u00fdvoj v\u00a0najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch mesiacoch, na \u010do upozor\u0148uj\u00fa aj analytici z\u00a0NBS.<\/p>\n<p>Na tomto mieste m\u00f4\u017eeme doda\u0165, \u017ee do konca J\u00fana 2020 nedo\u0161lo k\u00a0v\u00fdraznej\u0161\u00edm pohybom cien nehnute\u013enost\u00ed. M\u00f4\u017eeme to pripisova\u0165 tomu, \u017ee kupuj\u00faci a\u00a0pred\u00e1vaj\u00faci vy\u010dk\u00e1vali, ako sa situ\u00e1cia vyvinie. Mysl\u00edme si v\u0161ak, \u017ee je st\u00e1le pr\u00edli\u0161 skoro hodnoti\u0165, ako sa korona kr\u00edza podp\u00ed\u0161e na v\u00fdvoji cien nehnute\u013enost\u00ed. S\u00fahlas\u00edme s\u00a0n\u00e1zorom NBS, \u017ee do ve\u013ekej miery to bude ovplyvnen\u00e9 t\u00fdm, ako sa prvotn\u00fd \u0161ok prenesie do na\u0161ej ekonomiky. Trh nehnute\u013enost\u00ed je procyklick\u00fd, pri\u010dom dlhodob\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 trendy sa v\u00a0\u0148om prejavuj\u00fa s\u00a0oneskoren\u00edm zhruba od 3 do 9 mesiacov. Preto bude pod\u013ea n\u00e1\u0161ho n\u00e1zoru mo\u017en\u00e9 presnej\u0161ie hodnoti\u0165 vplyv pand\u00e9mie na realitn\u00fd trh koncom roka 2020.<\/p>\n<p>Na z\u00e1ver sa pozrime na porovnanie cien nehnute\u013enost\u00ed s\u00a0v\u00fdvojom v\u00a0ekonomike, ktor\u00e9 maj\u00fa na trh real\u00edt priamy vplyv. Toto porovnanie bude na z\u00e1klade kompozitn\u00e9ho indexu na hodnotenie cien b\u00fdvania<a href=\"applewebdata:\/\/7BE7C009-3D39-4D3C-BD5E-4F4F8EDC69FE#_ftn2\" name=\"_ftnref2\">[2]<\/a> ako ho zostavuje NBS. Malo by odpoveda\u0165 na ot\u00e1zku, \u010di sa na trhu real\u00edt tvor\u00ed bublina, alebo v\u00fdvoj cien odr\u00e1\u017ea z\u00e1kladn\u00e9 fundamenty v\u00fdvoja ekonomiky. \u00a0Index za t\u00fdmto \u00fa\u010delom porovn\u00e1va 5 ukazovate\u013eov &#8211; re\u00e1lnu cena b\u00fdvania, pomer ceny b\u00fdvania k pr\u00edjmu, pomer ceny b\u00fdvania k cene mesa\u010dn\u00e9ho pren\u00e1jmu, pomer \u00faverov na b\u00fdvanie k hrub\u00e9mu disponibiln\u00e9mu pr\u00edjmu dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed a pomer objemu v\u00fdstavby bytov\u00fdch budov k HDP. S\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fa hodnotu indexu a jeho historick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj m\u00f4\u017eete vidie\u0165 na Grafe 8.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_15300\" style=\"width: 810px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screenshot-2020-07-03-at-12.04.10.png\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15300\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-15300\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screenshot-2020-07-03-at-12.04.10-1024x671.png\" alt=\"Kompozitny index 1q 2020\" width=\"800\" height=\"524\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screenshot-2020-07-03-at-12.04.10-1024x671.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screenshot-2020-07-03-at-12.04.10-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screenshot-2020-07-03-at-12.04.10-768x503.png 768w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screenshot-2020-07-03-at-12.04.10-848x555.png 848w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screenshot-2020-07-03-at-12.04.10-816x534.png 816w, https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screenshot-2020-07-03-at-12.04.10.png 1698w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-15300\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graf 8: V\u00fdvoj Kompozitn\u00e9ho indexu na hodnotenie cien b\u00fdvania; Zdroj: NBS<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Z\u00a0v\u00fdvoja grafu je zrejm\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00a0danej situ\u00e1cii analytici NBS nepova\u017euj\u00fa s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj za rizikov\u00fd a\u00a0v\u00fdvoj na trhu nehnute\u013enost\u00ed m\u00e1 oporu vo v\u00fdvoji ekonomiky. V\u00fdvoj cien v\u00a0medzikvart\u00e1lnom porovnan\u00ed pomerne dos\u0165 kol\u00edsal. Rastov\u00fd trend od roku 2015 je v\u0161ak zrejm\u00fd. Najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed podiel na pr\u00edrastku indexu za 1q 2020 mal pomer ceny k pr\u00edjmu a pomer ceny k n\u00e1jomn\u00e9mu. Existuje v\u0161ak riziko, \u017ee pokia\u013e sa pokles ekonomiky sp\u00f4soben\u00fd pand\u00e9miou nepodp\u00ed\u0161e na v\u00fdvoji cien real\u00edt, potom sa m\u00f4\u017ee za\u010da\u0165 nafukova\u0165 aj realitn\u00e1 bublina. Ako v\u0161ak u\u017e bolo spom\u00ednan\u00e9 vy\u0161\u0161ie, realitn\u00fd trh m\u00e1 ist\u00fa zotrva\u010dnos\u0165 a preto m\u00f4\u017ee trva\u0165, k\u00fdm sa ceny prisp\u00f4sobia nov\u00e9mu trendu. V pr\u00edpade sign\u00e1lov na r\u00fdchle zotavenie ekonomiky m\u00f4\u017eeme dokonca o\u010dak\u00e1va\u0165 zachovanie cien na s\u00fa\u010dasnej \u00farovni, pr\u00edpadne aj rast cien v ekonomick\u00fdch centr\u00e1ch (napr. v krajsk\u00fdch mest\u00e1ch). To by v pr\u00edpade celkov\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho poklesu znamenalo prechodn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161enie hodn\u00f4t indexu do rizikov\u00e9ho p\u00e1sma. Z poh\u013eadu v\u00fdvoja cien za posledn\u00e9 3 mesiace v oblastiach, kde p\u00f4sob\u00edme, sa zatia\u013e prikl\u00e1\u0148ame sk\u00f4r k druhej mo\u017enosti. Utvrdzuj\u00fa n\u00e1s v tom aj\u00a0d\u00e1ta port\u00e1lu Nehnute\u013enosti.sk, ktor\u00e9 nazna\u010duj\u00fa r\u00fdchle o\u017eivenie trhu. Vyh\u013ead\u00e1vanie nehnute\u013enost\u00ed sa po hlbokom prepade v marci vr\u00e1tili v m\u00e1ji takmer na predkr\u00edzov\u00fa \u00farove\u0148. Oproti marcu vzr\u00e1stol aj po\u010det osloven\u00fdch realitn\u00fdch makl\u00e9rov cez str\u00e1nky port\u00e1lu o 100%<a href=\"applewebdata:\/\/7BE7C009-3D39-4D3C-BD5E-4F4F8EDC69FE#_ftn3\" name=\"_ftnref3\">[3]<\/a>. Majitelia nepochybne vn\u00edmaj\u00fa tento trend a bud\u00fa len neradi z\u013eavova\u0165 z inzerovan\u00fdch cien.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"applewebdata:\/\/7BE7C009-3D39-4D3C-BD5E-4F4F8EDC69FE#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a> Viac inform\u00e1ci\u00ed o\u00a0kon\u0161trukcii indexu HAI N\u00e1rodnou bankou Slovenska n\u00e1jdete tu <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nbs.sk\/_img\/Documents\/_komentare\/2013\/98_CNNB_rk133Q.pdf\">http:\/\/www.nbs.sk\/_img\/Documents\/_komentare\/2013\/98_CNNB_rk133Q.pdf<\/a>, inform\u00e1cie k\u00a0p\u00f4vodnej verzii od ktorej NBS odvodila index pre svoje potreby n\u00e1jdete tu <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/housing-statistics\/housing-affordability-index\/methodology\">https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/housing-statistics\/housing-affordability-index\/methodology<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"applewebdata:\/\/7BE7C009-3D39-4D3C-BD5E-4F4F8EDC69FE#_ftnref2\" name=\"_ftn2\">[2]<\/a> Viac inform\u00e1ci\u00ed o\u00a0jeho zostavovan\u00ed n\u00e1jdete tu: https:\/\/www.nbs.sk\/_img\/Documents\/_komentare\/AnalytickeKomentare\/2017\/AK41_Kompozitny_index_na_hodnotenie_vyvoja_ceny_byvania.pdf<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"applewebdata:\/\/7BE7C009-3D39-4D3C-BD5E-4F4F8EDC69FE#_ftnref3\" name=\"_ftn3\">[3]<\/a> Cel\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nok na <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nehnutelnosti.sk\/magazin-o-byvani\/1013-zaujem-o-nehnutelnosti-vyrazne-rastie\/\">https:\/\/www.nehnutelnosti.sk\/magazin-o-byvani\/1013-zaujem-o-nehnutelnosti-vyrazne-rastie\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Zdroje:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbs.sk\/sk\/statisticke-udaje\/vybrane-makroekonomicke-ukazovatele\/ceny-nehnutelnosti-na-byvanie\">http:\/\/www.nbs.sk<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.narks.sk\">http:\/\/www.narks.sk<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nehnutelnosti.sk\/magazin-o-byvani\/1013-zaujem-o-nehnutelnosti-vyrazne-rastie\/\">https:\/\/www.nehnutelnosti.sk\/magazin-o-byvani\/1013-zaujem-o-nehnutelnosti-vyrazne-rastie\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Autor:\u00a0Jaroslav Barla<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V\u00fdvoj cien nehnute\u013enost\u00ed za 1q 2020 Ak ste investovali do real\u00edt, alebo o\u00a0invest\u00edcii uva\u017eujete, jedn\u00fdm zo z\u00e1kladov \u00faspechu je pozna\u0165 ekonomick\u00e9 prostredie, ktor\u00e9 m\u00e1, resp. bude ma\u0165, na Va\u0161u invest\u00edciu priamy vplyv. Tento \u010dl\u00e1nok prin\u00e1\u0161a \u00fadaje o\u00a0v\u00fdvoji na trhu nehnute\u013enost\u00ed za prv\u00fd kvart\u00e1l 2020 ako zachyt\u00e1vaj\u00fa \u0161tatistiky\u00a0N\u00e1rodnej banky Slovenska, s vyu\u017eit\u00edm zdrojov N\u00e1rodnej asoci\u00e1cie realitn\u00fdch [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":15301,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[96],"tags":[607,613],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15299"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15299"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15299\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15318,"href":"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15299\/revisions\/15318"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15301"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15299"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15299"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simproperty.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15299"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}